The 2024 Olympic women's soccer tournament will reach its climax in Paris on Saturday with a thrilling final between the United States and Brazil. The USWNT, under new head coach Emma Hayes, has been in superb form, winning every match so far. In contrast, Brazil struggled in the group stage but found their stride in the knockout rounds, overcoming World Cup champions Spain and hosts France.
Will the revamped USWNT secure their fifth Olympic gold, the first since 2012? Or will Brazilian icon Marta finally capture her first international trophy? Although the U.S. has had the upper hand against Brazil recently, tournament soccer is always unpredictable.
In anticipation of Saturday's final, ESPN's Sam Borden and Jeff Kassouf dive into the matchup, address the key questions, and share their predictions.
Why could the USWNT win?
Call them whatever you like – though "Triple Trouble" seems to be catching on – but Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, and Sophia Smith have been the driving force behind this team throughout the tournament. This trio has netted nine of the 11 American goals over five games in France, showcasing their versatility with strikes from distance, precise cutbacks, through balls, and even chaotic scrambles.
While it's clear that the U.S. will need a full team effort to overcome a strong Brazil side, there's no question that any American success will likely hinge on one of their frontline stars delivering something extraordinary. Rodman had her moment in the quarterfinals, and Smith shone in the semifinals – could the final be Swanson's time to shine?
Why could Brazil win?
Brazil's attacking depth is impressive, so much so that 2023 NWSL MVP Kerolin—who made a remarkable comeback to the team despite not playing for her club this year due to an ACL tear last fall—was brought off the bench in the semifinal, where she scored in stoppage time. This journey has been achieved without Marta for the last 2½ games. Marta, who has shed many tears in recent years as she fights her final battles for Brazil, will return from suspension for what will be her last Olympic game. It's a fitting narrative for her final chapter. Sending off the six-time world player of the year with a major title, after several close calls—including the gold medal losses to the USWNT in 2004 and 2008—will be a powerful motivation for this squad.
Which duel do you think will be decisive in the final?
The spotlight will naturally be on the USWNT's front three, especially with the likelihood of one-on-one matchups emerging if Brazil sticks to a three-back formation. However, the real battle will unfold in the midfield. Brazil is expected to crowd the central areas with a rotating lineup, similar to Germany's approach in their semifinal against the U.S. For the USWNT, the midfield trio of Sam Coffey, Lindsey Horan, and Rose Lavelle will be crucial—they need to find more opportunities to control the ball and distribute it with precision. Meanwhile, Marta, who has defied her 38 years with a standout season for both club and country, will be determined to leave her mark in what could be her last major showdown against one of her long-time rivals.
I completely agree with you, Jeff. One area where the U.S. has struggled in France is the midfield—Horan and Lavelle have been inconsistent. However, I'm focusing a bit further back on the field. Naomi Girma has been exceptional throughout the tournament, and she'll need to lead another solid defensive effort. As you mentioned earlier, Brazil poses significant attacking threats, including off the bench, and their coach, Arthur Elias, encourages his forwards to press high and often. Spain struggled with that pressure from players like Gabi Portilho and Priscila, and the U.S. will need to handle it better if they want to come out on top.
USWNT player to watch
Trinity Rodman. It's tough to argue against Girma as the top center-back in the world right now, but I believe Rodman is the player who will capture the attention of a broader audience. Picking just one standout from that dynamic front trio of Rodman, Smith, and Swanson is no easy task, but Rodman brings a unique energy to the pitch. Her fitness is unparalleled, as she dominates the right wing, often driving the USWNT's attacks with more than just her three goals. While it’s been a collective effort to reach this stage, Rodman is the one in form and poised to take charge in this final.
Brazil player to watch
Marta. How can you not root for Marta? Even the most die-hard USWNT fan, if they truly love women's soccer, has a small part of them that wants Marta to finally have her moment. The Queen of Football has a legendary résumé, and at 38, she's competing in her sixth Summer Games for Brazil. Yet, despite all her achievements, she’s never won a World Cup or an Olympic title. Although the Brazilian team no longer revolves around her as it once did, Marta is set to return after sitting out the last 2½ games due to a straight red card. This is her last chance to shine on the biggest stage, and it’s a show you can't afford to miss.
Score prediction
United States 2-1 Brazil. Neither of these teams was widely expected to make it this far, and whichever one wins will create an incredible story. For the U.S., it’s a chance at redemption after last year's dramatic World Cup failure; for Brazil, it’s a poetic farewell for one of the sport's greatest legends. Both teams will be battling fatigue, leading to mistakes, but I believe the U.S. front three is better equipped to capitalize on those opportunities against Brazil.
United States 3-2 Brazil. I’m totally with you on the storylines, Jeff—whether it’s an epic finale for Marta or a phenomenal debut for Hayes, it's going to be something special. As for the match itself, I might be overly optimistic, especially since international finals are often tight affairs, but I have a feeling we could see more goals this time. I’ve mentioned before that Hayes has a certain spark, so I’m sticking with it: USWNT to win in a thriller.
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